Fra 2007 har det vært en stadig sterkere økning i antall nye uførepensjonister hvert år, særlig gjelder dette for yngre aldersgrupper og for kvinner. Dette har gitt opphav til uro og spekulasjon om hva som er i ferd med å skje. I denne artikkelen vil vi ta for oss to viktige årsaker til de trekkene vi observerer, nemlig den demografiske utviklingen, og konsekvensene av store reformer innenfor det helserelaterte stønadssystemet.

Fafo og Pensjonistforbundet inviterer til heldagsseminar torsdag 22. mars 2012 kl 09.00 - 15.00 i Fafos lokaler i Borggata 2B på Grønland i Oslo.

Programmet er delt opp i to sesjoner. Før lunsj er tema Hva skjer med tjenestepensjonene, med innlegg av Fafo-forsker Geir Veland og leder av Banklovkommisjonen, Erling Selvig. Selvig vil kommentere de nye reglene for tjenestepensjoner som nå utarbeides. Jan Otto Risebrobakken, Storebrand, Jan Aaboen, Pensjonistforbundet, Tor Arne Solbakken LO og Svein Oppegaard, NHO debatterer deretter innleggene.

Etter lunsj er tema Fremtidens valg, tilpasninger og ytelser, med innlegg av daglig leder i Fafo, Jon M. Hippe og Alexandra Plathe, partner i Steenberg og Plathe. Deres innlegg kommenteres av Axel West Pedersen ved Institutt for Samfunnsforskning, Eystein Gjelsvik, LO og Pål Skarsbak, Virke.

Using a novel dataset from the 2006 Portuguese Labor Force Survey this paper examines the impact of a voluntary reduction in hours of work, before retirement, on the moment of exit from the labor force. If, as often suggested, flexibility in hours of work is a useful measure to postpone retirement, then a reduction in working hours should be associated with retirement at later ages. Results prove otherwise suggesting that reducing hours of work before retirement is associated with early exits from the labor force. A reduction in hours of work seems to signal the worker's wish to retire sooner rather than to announce the desire of remaining in the labor market. This result may enclose the need for some alternative policy strategies regarding working hours.

Households that delay claiming Social Security are, in effect, making additional purchases of the Social Security annuity. Theoretical calculations show the delayed claiming is optimal, even for high mortality households. Yet most claim well before the theoretically optimal age. This paper investigates whether subjective mortality beliefs contribute to the prevalence of early claiming. The value of delay depends not only on life expectancy, but also on the degree of uncertainty surrounding the age of death. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we show that women approaching retirement understate their probabilities of surviving to age 75 by an average of 10 percentage points, whereas men’s forecasts are, on average, correct. But both men and women exhibit greater confidence of their ability to forecast their age of death, relative to the predictions of life tables. But these subjective mortality beliefs have little effect on the value of Social Security or the optimal claim age, and cannot explain the prevalence of early claiming. We also find that self-assessed survival probabilities do not predict survival after controlling for health and socio-economic status, indicating a potential for medical underwriting to reduce adverse selection in the annuity market.

One of the major challenges facing Americans today is how to prepare for a secure retirement. While market ups and downs are unpredictable, people do have control over work and saving decisions that can significantly improve their retirement prospects. This brief uses a simple model to estimate what percent of earnings an individual must save to ensure a financially secure retirement depending on he starts saving, he retires, and how he invests his retirement savings...

One of the major challenges facing Americans today is how to prepare for a secure retirement. While market ups and downs are unpredictable, people do have control over work and saving decisions that can significantly improve their retirement prospects. This brief uses a simple model to estimate what percent of earnings an individual must save to ensure a financially secure retirement depending on he starts saving, he retires, and how he invests his retirement savings...

A widespread perception is that state-local government workers receive high pension benefits which, combined with Social Security, provide more than adequate retirement income. This study uses the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and actuarial reports to test this hypothesis.

This paper uses asset and labor market data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to investigate how the recent "Great Recession" has affected the wealth and retirement of those in the population who were just approaching retirement age at the beginning of the recession, a potentially vulnerable segment of the working age population.

Pension plan sponsors in the Netherlands are facing their second funding challenge in the past decade, this one more severe than the first.

Our findings suggest that although the consequences of the decline in the stock market are serious for those approaching their retirement, the average person approaching retirement age is not likely to suffer a life changing financial loss from the stock market downturn of 2008-2009.

Our findings suggest that although the consequences of the decline in the stock market are serious for those approaching their retirement, the average person approaching retirement age is not likely to suffer a life changing financial loss from the stock market downturn of 2008-2009.

How do low-income households think about retirement? Do they think about retirement? If so, when do they think they will retire, and what is it they plan to live on?