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WILL THE AVERAGE RETIREMENT AGE KEEP RISING?

After nearly a century of decline, work activity among older men stabilized in the 1980s and since the early 1990s the average retirement age has increased by about three years. The question is whether the factors that led to the increase over the last 30 years – changes to Social Security, retirement plans, the nature of work, educational attainment, etc. – will continue to push out the retirement age or have they, for the most part, played themselves out.

15. oktober 2025

 "The first section in the article puts the last 30 years in context by exploring the reasons for the decline in labor force participation of men between 1880 and 1980. The second section looks at the turnaround in labor force participation and the increase in the average retirement age that began in the early 1990s. The third section discusses the factors responsible for this turnaround, and the fourth section assesses the likely future impact of these factors. The final section concludes that the forces leading to increased participation of older workers may well be exhausted, suggesting further increases in the average retirement age are relatively unlikely. "