The analysis is preliminary and may be supplemented and further defined at a later stage. Among other things, the detailed content of the reform, the more detailed assessments of the behavioural effects of the reform and updated assessments of the general economic development may affect the content of the consequence analysis.
The consequence assessments are based mainly on the results of the long-term projection model (LTP) of the Finnish Centre for Pensions. The LTP model was developed in order to assess the development of pension expenditure, pension contributions and average pensions. In addition to the calculations based on the LTP model, data of the population that will be affected by the reform and the possible behavioural effects of the reform were required. More precise and detailed assessments of the effects of the reform on pension levels have also been required. Answers to these questions have been sought from the data in the pension and earnings registers of the Finnish Centre for Pensions and through a microsimulation model developed at the Finnish Centre for Pensions.
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