A classic defined benefit scheme delivers a real annuity at retirement, which is considered to be the optimal pension provision for individuals. The unsustainability of these schemes combined with new regulation is driving a worldwide shift towards defined contribution solutions, which do not deliver a guarantee and thus a suboptimal pension.

Banklovkommisjonens forslag til nytt tjenestepensjonsprodukt i privat sektor tilfredsstiller alle behov en arbeidsgiver måtte ha. Bedriften kan spare mye eller lite til de ansattes pensjoner. Arbeidsgiver kan videre fri seg fra en hver garanti, velte all risiko over på arbeidstakerne og dermed styre unna balanseføringen av framtidige forpliktelse. Motsatt kan arbeidsgiver garantere de ansatte lønnsregulering av pensjonskapitalen og dermed sikre et visst nivå på pensjonene. I notatet vises det bl.a. at forslagene til maksimalsatser er satt for lavt til å gi like gode pensjoner som dagens ytelsesordninger. Kommisjonens forslag på 7 pst må økes til minst 8,5 pst for å kunne sikre pensjoner på to tredeler av sluttlønn innenfor standardmodellen.

States and localities account for pensions in their financial statements according to standards laid out by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB). Under these standards, state and local plans generally follow an actuarial model and discount their liabilities by the long-term yield on the assets held in the pension fund, roughly 8 percent. Most econo­mists contend that the discount rate should reflect the risk associated with the liabilities and, given that benefits are guaranteed under most state laws, the appropriate discount factor is closer to the riskless rate. The point is not that liabilities should be larger or smaller, but rather that the discount rate should reflect the nature of the liabilities; the characteristics of the assets backing the liabilities are irrelevant…

This research report is one of three projects commissioned by the Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) into hybrid or risk sharing pension plans. The main objective of the research is “to increase the knowledge of risk sharing and hybrid pension plans compared to traditional final salary and pure defined contribution plans; and to promote discussion and better understanding of these within Government and the wider pensions world”.

One reason young workers don’t save for retirement is that the event is so far off. An experiment to boost their saving tested different ads: abstract or concrete wording (“why you should save more now” vs. “how you can save more now”); and a short- or long-term savings goal (“how much to save from each paycheck” vs. “how much to save over your lifetime”). The most effective ads paired abstract wording with a long-term goal and concrete wording with a short-term goal. Therefore, communications designed to spur saving by young workers should match the framing of the message to the time horizon of the savings milestone.

The motivation for this paper is the concern that financial advice – the topic of this conference – tends to focus on financial assets, applying tools that give prominence to the asset allocation decision. But most people have little financial wealth, and financial tools are often silent on the levers that will have a much larger effect on retirement security for the majority of Americans. These levers include delaying retirement, tapping housing equity through a reverse mortgage, and controlling spending. Moreover, even for many with substantial assets, these non-financial levers may be as powerful as asset allocation in attaining retirement security.

Fra 2007 har det vært en stadig sterkere økning i antall nye uførepensjonister hvert år, særlig gjelder dette for yngre aldersgrupper og for kvinner. Dette har gitt opphav til uro og spekulasjon om hva som er i ferd med å skje. I denne artikkelen vil vi ta for oss to viktige årsaker til de trekkene vi observerer, nemlig den demografiske utviklingen, og konsekvensene av store reformer innenfor det helserelaterte stønadssystemet.

Fafo og Pensjonistforbundet inviterer til heldagsseminar torsdag 22. mars 2012 kl 09.00 - 15.00 i Fafos lokaler i Borggata 2B på Grønland i Oslo.

Programmet er delt opp i to sesjoner. Før lunsj er tema Hva skjer med tjenestepensjonene, med innlegg av Fafo-forsker Geir Veland og leder av Banklovkommisjonen, Erling Selvig. Selvig vil kommentere de nye reglene for tjenestepensjoner som nå utarbeides. Jan Otto Risebrobakken, Storebrand, Jan Aaboen, Pensjonistforbundet, Tor Arne Solbakken LO og Svein Oppegaard, NHO debatterer deretter innleggene.

Etter lunsj er tema Fremtidens valg, tilpasninger og ytelser, med innlegg av daglig leder i Fafo, Jon M. Hippe og Alexandra Plathe, partner i Steenberg og Plathe. Deres innlegg kommenteres av Axel West Pedersen ved Institutt for Samfunnsforskning, Eystein Gjelsvik, LO og Pål Skarsbak, Virke.

Using a novel dataset from the 2006 Portuguese Labor Force Survey this paper examines the impact of a voluntary reduction in hours of work, before retirement, on the moment of exit from the labor force. If, as often suggested, flexibility in hours of work is a useful measure to postpone retirement, then a reduction in working hours should be associated with retirement at later ages. Results prove otherwise suggesting that reducing hours of work before retirement is associated with early exits from the labor force. A reduction in hours of work seems to signal the worker's wish to retire sooner rather than to announce the desire of remaining in the labor market. This result may enclose the need for some alternative policy strategies regarding working hours.

Households that delay claiming Social Security are, in effect, making additional purchases of the Social Security annuity. Theoretical calculations show the delayed claiming is optimal, even for high mortality households. Yet most claim well before the theoretically optimal age. This paper investigates whether subjective mortality beliefs contribute to the prevalence of early claiming. The value of delay depends not only on life expectancy, but also on the degree of uncertainty surrounding the age of death. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we show that women approaching retirement understate their probabilities of surviving to age 75 by an average of 10 percentage points, whereas men’s forecasts are, on average, correct. But both men and women exhibit greater confidence of their ability to forecast their age of death, relative to the predictions of life tables. But these subjective mortality beliefs have little effect on the value of Social Security or the optimal claim age, and cannot explain the prevalence of early claiming. We also find that self-assessed survival probabilities do not predict survival after controlling for health and socio-economic status, indicating a potential for medical underwriting to reduce adverse selection in the annuity market.

One of the major challenges facing Americans today is how to prepare for a secure retirement. While market ups and downs are unpredictable, people do have control over work and saving decisions that can significantly improve their retirement prospects. This brief uses a simple model to estimate what percent of earnings an individual must save to ensure a financially secure retirement depending on he starts saving, he retires, and how he invests his retirement savings...

One of the major challenges facing Americans today is how to prepare for a secure retirement. While market ups and downs are unpredictable, people do have control over work and saving decisions that can significantly improve their retirement prospects. This brief uses a simple model to estimate what percent of earnings an individual must save to ensure a financially secure retirement depending on he starts saving, he retires, and how he invests his retirement savings...